CRITICAL LONG RANGE FORECASTS

1. Long Term Market & Product Forecast
2. Overall Market Forecast for the Industry
3. A Long Range Forecast 
4. Long Term Product Growth for the Target Company

 

THE PRODUCTS

1. Life Cycles & Stages in the Life Cycle & Gompertz Analysis
Market Share & the product life cycle - Quality & the product life cycle - Product range & introduction or dynamic Stage life cycles - Product Range & Capital Intensiveness - Market Share & selling customized or specified products - Profitability, market share & Product uniqueness

2. Relative Pricing

3. Quality
Value Scale - Relative Product Quality - Profitability & Quality Products & Services - Relative Product Quality & Levels of Profitability - Quality Profits & Concentrated Markets - Product Quality & Relative Market Share - Product Quality, Profitability & Growth

4. New Products
Profitability, growth markets & new products - New product introductions, pricing & profitability - New product introductions, investment & profitability - Levels of new products, product quality & profitability.


COMPETITION

1.The Market Share
Market share & profitability - Profitability & relative market share - Company Market Shares

2. Relative Market Shares

3. Nature of the Competitive Situation
Entry & exit of competitors - Relative Strengths of competitors

4. Perfectness of the Market

 

THE INDUSTRY

1. Long Term Industry Growth

2. Physical Process Considerations
Costs & market shares - Capacity Utilization & market shares - Productivity & profitability in growth markets - Levels of labour Unionisation & market shares - Unionisation, profitability & growth - Unionisation, profitability & concentration - Unionisation, profitability & harvesting strategies - Profitability, processes & market shares.

3. Capital Structure & Investment Intensity
Profitability & investment intensity - Net margins & investment - Gross margins & investment - Profitability, market share & capital intensity - Productivity, profitability & investment intensity - Capacity Utilization, profitability & capital intensity - Inventories level, profitability & capital intensity.

4. Physical Process & Vertical Integration
Profitability, market share & vertical integration - Profitability, diversification & vertical integration - Profitability, vertical integration & numbers of customers - Profitability, vertical integration & product quality - Profitability, vertical integration & inventory value - Profitability, vertical integration & employee productivity.

5. Marketing & Sales Costs
Profitability, market share & marketing costs - Profitability, capital intensity & marketing costs - Profitability, numbers of customers & marketing costs - Profitability, product quality & marketing costs - Profitability, new products & marketing costs.

6. R&D + Process Development Costs
Profitability, R&D expenditure & market cycle - Profitability, R&D expenditure & product quality - Profitability, R&D spend & marketing costs - Profits, R&D spend & market share - Profitability, R&D spend & Unionisation.

7. Distribution of the Company's Products

8. Market Penetration & The Right Tools for the Job

9. Market Share & the Target Company


The relationship between market share & profitability
a) Market share, profit/sales & investment. The relationship between market share & added value / Vertical integration & investment/sales - Conclusions for the Target Company
b) The relationship of market share & sales ratios / investment/sales ratio & integration - Conclusions for the Target Company
c) Marketing costs/sales ratio & market penetration
d) Market leadership, pricing & product quality
e) Market leadership, customers & product advances
f) Purchase frequency & Market Share
g) Customer base fragmentation & Market Share

 

MEDIUM + LONG TERM STRATEGIES

Building, Holding and Harvesting Strategies:-
1. When to Build Market Share - Building strategies for the Target Company
2. When to Hold Market Share - Holding strategies for the Target Company
3. When to Harvest Market Share - Harvesting Strategies for the Target Company


MEDIUM + LONG TERM CHECKLIST

This section recommends a working plan or document for the critical factors which influence the Target Company in strategic terms. The data is given as a matrix by Subsidiary, Division, Unit or Market sector.

Medium & Long Term Checklist for the Target Company:
Forecast of Profitability ~ Forecast of Productivity ~ Forecast of Market Shares ~ Recommendations on Customer Awareness ~ Recommendations on Customer Perceptions ~ Recommendations on Sales Promotion Activity ~ Recommendations on Advertising Posture ~ Recommendations on Product Availability ~ Recommendations on Technical Competence ~ Recommendations on Awareness of Products ~ Recommendations on Awareness of Product Quality ~ Recommendations on Awareness of Product Pricing ~ Recommendations on Pricing Relative to Competitors ~ Recommendations on Quality Relative to Competitors ~ Recommendations on Relative Product Performance ~ Recommendations on Relative Technical Superiority ~ Recommendations on Relative Service Factors ~ Forecast of Current Customer Base ~ Forecast of Annual Sales of Products & Services ~ Forecast of Current Sales ~ Recommended Costs & Margins ~ Recommended Distribution Channels & Networks ~ Forecast of Pre-Tax Profit / Total Assets ~ Forecast of Pre-Tax Profit / Sales ~ Forecast of Pre-Tax Profit / Capital Employed ~ Forecast of Pre-Tax Profit Per Employee ~ Forecast of Investment / Sales ~ Forecast of Receivables / Sales ~ Forecast of Inventory / Sales ~ Forecast of Physical Process Costs / Sales ~ Forecast of Total Marketing Costs / Sales ~ Forecast of R&D Expenditure / Sales ~ Forecast of Added Value ~ Forecast of Capacity Utilization ~ Forecast of Relative Product Quality ~ Forecast of Relative Product Pricing ~ Forecast of Competitors ~ Forecast of Competitors' Strength ~ Forecast of New Products ~ Forecast of Product Life Cycles ~ Forecast of New Product Horizons ~ Forecast of Relative Competitive Sales-Force Expenditure ~ Forecast of Relative Competitive Advertising Expenditure ~ Forecast of Relative Competitive Promotional Expenditure.

 

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT + PRODUCT SCREENING

The report will provide a fully developed product screening procedure for the future use of readers when evaluating existing products and new product opportunities for the Target Company.

 

COMMERCIAL DECISION SCENARIOS : BALANCE SHEET + COSTS FORECASTS

  1.     BASE FINANCIAL + OPERATIONAL FORECAST SCENARIO
  2.     MEDIAN MARKET SCENARIO
  3.     MARKET SEGMENTATION FORECASTS
  4.     PRICE INCREASE EFFECT ON FINANCIAL + OPERATIONAL FORECASTS
  5.     QUALITY IMPROVEMENT FORECASTS
  6.     NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT FORECASTS
  7.     NEW PLANT + EQUIPMENT INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  8.     NEW TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  9.     MARKETING EXPENDITURE FORECASTS
10.     DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL IMPROVEMENT FORECASTS
11.     PERSONNEL + STAFF IMPROVEMENT FORECASTS
12.     COST STRUCTURE IMPROVEMENT FORECASTS
13.     EXPORT SALES IMPROVEMENT FORECASTS


Each of the above scenarios contains Forecast Data (to 2028) for the Target Company which cover the following items:-

 

     Total Sales; Domestic Sales; Exports; Pre-tax Profit; Interest Paid; Non-trading Income; Operating Profit; Depreciation; Trading Profit; Fixed Assets; Intangible Assets; Intermediate Assets; Total Fixed Assets; Stocks; Debtors; Other Current Assets; Total Current Assets; Total Assets; Creditors; Short Term Loans; Current Liabilities; Total Current Liabilities; Net Assets; Shareholders' Funds; Long Term Loans; Long Term Liabilities; Capital Employed; Directors' Remunerations; Employees' Remunerations; Total Employees

     New Technology Expenditure; New Physical Process Technology Expenditure; Total Research & Development Expenditure; Plant & Equipment in Use: 0-3 years; Plant & Equipment in Use: 3-6 years; Plant & Equipment in Use: 6-9 years; Plant & Equipment in Use over 9 years old; Plant & Equipment Investment greater than Depreciation; Plant & Equipment Investment Less than Depreciation; Capital Expenditure on Plant & Equipment; Capital Expenditure on Structures; Capital Expenditure on Miscellaneous Items

     Return on Capital; Return on Assets; Return on Shareholders' Funds; Pre-tax Profit Margins; Operating Profit Margin; Trading Profit Margin; Assets Utilization; Sales as a ratio of Fixed Assets; Stock Turnover; Credit Period; Creditors' Ratio; Working Capital / Sales; Current Ratio; Quick Ratio; Borrowing Ratio; Equity Ratio; Income Gearing; Total Debt as a ratio of Working Capital; Debt Gearing Ratio; Average Remuneration; Profit per Employee; Sales per Employee; Remunerations / Sales; Fixed Assets per Employee; Capital Employed per Employee; Total Assets per Employee; Exports as a % of Sales Materials & Energy Costs; Payroll Costs; Total Process Costs; Sales Costs; Distribution & Handling Costs; Advertising Costs; After-Sales Costs; Total Marketing Costs; Added Value

     Capacity Utilization as a measure of Standard Capacity; Relative output of Products of a Superior Quality as a % of the Total; Product Pricing as a % of the Market Average; New Products as a % of the Total Output; Index of Comparative Salesforce & Selling Expenditure; Index of Comparative Advertising Expenditure; Index of Comparative General Promotional Expenditure; Wholesale Customers; End User Customers; OEM & Manufacturing Customers; Consumer & End User Customers; Governmental Customers; Non-Specific Customers.